Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".